And yet, every year I watch, and every year I shit my pants with excitement when the nominations are announced. And every year, I am underwhelmed at the lack of surprising candidates. But I am excited nonetheless, and the therefore will give you my predictions of the winners, losers and probable unfair shut-outs of the major categories for the 2011 Oscars.
Can I have a drum roll, please?
...No? Not in the budget? Fine.
Then we're off!
1. Best Picture
- Easily the most anticipated category of every Oscar season, the list was recently expanded to ten nominations instead of five, which I personally like. More room for movies that academy snobs would snidely snub. Here are the candidates:
- Black Swan- This is probably one of the most interesting movies of the year. An original and refreshing story that makes you squirm like a little piggie. But the academy doesn't like to squirm. They'll take blood, but not if while it's happening you're going "Ah, ah, ah, ah, nu-nu-nu-noooooo, EWWWWWWWWWW!" They frown on that. Ergo, chances are about
- 1:10.
- The Fighter- I have to admit, this is an Oscar powerhouse. Sports movie, true story, A-List actors. It's a perfectly coddled movie made specifically for the Oscar crowd. But the thing is, it's very rare for a movie to win best picture if the lead actor isn't even nominated. And while Wahlberg got some love a few years back for The Departed, I find it odd that he wasn't nominated for best actor (especially instead of Jesse Eisenberg). Also, Million Dollar Baby (another boxing movie) won in 2004. The academy doesn't like to be too transparent.
- 1:15
- Inception- Sadly, this one doesn't stand a chance in hell, which is a damn shame because it's an excellent movie. The thing is, there have been a total of five science-fiction nominees in Oscar history before this (Star Wars, A Clockwork Orange, E.T., Avatar and District 9) two of which were nominated last year. Plus, the likelihood of a movie winning best picture without a directing nomination is unheard of. Which is fucking stupid because Christopher Nolan is one of the best directors working today and HE DESERVES A FUCKING OSCAR. Fucking Christ!
- 50:1
- The Kids Are All Right- The academy loves the underdog. They also love the quirky love tale. They also love to show how accepting they are of alternative lifestyles. However, comedies are usually bitch-slapped at the Oscars. There have been about eleven comedies to win best picture, and some of them walked the line between comedy and drama. Also, it was released a tad too early for the memory-impaired Oscar crowd.
- 35:1
- The King's Speech- Well, wasn't this a surprise? A historical drama/biopic starring an actor snubbed by last year's Oscars released just weeks before the nominations were announced. With a total of 12 nominations, The King's Speech leads the pack as far as accolades. Everybody and their mother loves Colin Firth to pieces. And I'll get to that. But this is an international movie, rare winners for best picture. However, it is perfectly tailored and tastefully done. So, I'm thinking
- 3:1
- 127 Hours- Like I said, the academy loves a true story. Especially one where the flawed protagonist overcomes a seemingly impossible obstacle. But this is too one-note, too heady and too basic for the Oscar crowd. Plus, Slumdog Millionaire, another Danny Boyle film, just won a couple years ago. Also, the title sucks.
- 60:1
- The Social Network- Every year. It happens every year. Last year, it was Avatar, the year before, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, year before that, Michael Clayton. There will always be the big money maker that comes out well before Oscar season that gets picked up for it's spectacle, originality or relevance. We're lucky that this year's is so intelligent. The Social Network may end up being the defining movie of our generation. Cynical to a fault, brooding, ruthless characters. It accurately depicts an environment very close to ours and it speaks to many of the ideas that we hold dear in America, such as the lust for power, the dwindling relevance of scruples in business and our gradual transition to our computer screens. It may very well be our generations Citizen Kane. I don't necessarily mean in terms of quality, but rather of relevance. And that's what the academy loves: relevance. Not to mention David Fincher lost with Benjamin Button two years ago. The academy loves second chances.
- 2:1
- Toy Story 3- In the many years of the Oscars, there has been one category outrageously pushed aside in favor of supposedly better and more substantial movies. This is of course the widely shunned genre of animation. In the 83 years of Oscars, there have been a total of three best picture animated movies: Beauty and the Beast, Up and now Toy Story 3. Where shall I begin? This was easily the best reviewed movie of the year. It worked on so many different levels and brought the story of the living toys to a bittersweet and beautiful ending. I dare you to find someone who didn't like it and I dare you to find someone who didn't cry at least once during it. And yet, it will not win. True, it has the best chance of any animated movie thus far, but the academy won't change over night. And while Toy Story 3 deserves the win, what academy member in their right mind would chose a kiddie movie about talking toys over a film about a historical character overcoming his personal issues to lead a nation and change the course of history? When you put it like that, no one would.
- Sigh...
- 40:1
- True Grit- With a total of ten nominations, the Coen Brothers are back. Oscar darlings who have somehow managed to be able to do exactly what they want with their movies and still get praised up the wazoo. On paper, this movie should be a no-brainer for best picture. They bros were nominated for best picture last year and lost, it's a western (an old-time Oscar favorite), it's a well-executed remake and it's got an adorable kid doing an amazing acting job. But this one's got a lot working against it, too. For one, the Coen Bros won in 2007 for No Country for Old Men (which was well deserved). The academy doesn't usually like to give a best picture oscar to the same group of people in the span of five years. This is the third time in four years they've been nominated and I doubt they're gonna get 2/3. It's also working against the likes of The Social Network and The King's Speech, two movies born for the little gold man. But this is the dark horse of this year. If you don't like The Social Network or The King's Speech, go with True Grit. It's a hell of a picture.
- 5:1
- Winter's Bone- Winter's what? Whose got my bone? No one's heard of it. This year's Hurt Locker? Probably not. The oscars love an underdog, but this is the kind of dog you could fit in your purse. No dice.
- 70:1
Will Win- The Social Network
Should Win- Toy Story 3
Snubbed- The Town, Get Low, Blue Valentine
2. Directing
People often complain about the redundancy of the Directing oscar. Their argument is if the movie is good, it's probably because of the director. And while the best picture and directing oscars are usually paired together, there is the occasional break away (for example, Shakespeare in Love won best picture, Saving Private Ryan won best director). However, I think it's important to honor the directors specifically. Plus, it immediately tells you the five movie that don't stand a chance in hell of winning best picture (I'll give you a hint: none of them have directing nominations.)
- Darren Aronofsky for Black Swan- This is largely redundant, as the reasons why these would or would not win are basically the same as the reasons I gave for best picture. However, there are more specific reasons why this won't win. For one, Aronofsky is a new comer to the Oscars. One usually has to work one's way up to win an Oscar. No luck for this one.
- 20:1
- David O. Russell for The Fighter- Russell stands about as much chance as his movie does for best picture. Don't count on it.
- 25:1
- Tom Hooper for The King's Speech- Now here's where it starts to get interesting. Regardless of which movie wins best picture, these three have a similar chance of winning best director. Tom Hopper has never been nominated for an Oscar. Fincher and the Coens have. They have both been nominated and lost in the past two years (However, only the Coen Brothers have actually won. And beat out Fincher, no less). By this logic, you would think they would cancel each other out, leaving The King standing. However, I don't think it'll work out like that. Newcomers gotta earn it.
- 3:1
- David Fincher for The Social Network- Fincher has a very strong case. He lost just two years ago to the Coen Brothers No Country for Old Men and I'm sure the academy would love to give him a second chance. And since my money is on The Social Network and that best picture and director rarely part, I'm going to say that this is Fincher's race to lose.
2:1
- Joel Coen and Ethan Coen for True Grit- This will not be the last time the dynamic duo are up for best director or picture. They won two years ago, and while this may be an excellent movie, the academy has already assured them that they are excellent directors and will be told so again.
- 5:1
Will Win: David Fincher (The Social Network)
Should Win: David Fincher
Snubbed: Christopher Nolan (Inception), Ben Affleck (The Town)
3. Leading Actor
This category is fun. Best actor noms are almost always littered with repeat nominees and so therefore it is actually pretty easy to guess who'll win based on past winners. Despite the fact that there is a lot of male star power, the same ones seem to come up on a pretty regular basis. We have three repeat nominees this year, and through my process of logic, we can determine who shall win.
- Javier Bardem for Biutiful- Bardem won a few years back for his terrifying turn in the Coen Brothers No Country for Old Men. He just got a lot of loving, and this nomination was surprise. It's not likely he'll grab this one.
- 25:1
- Jeff Bridges for True Grit- Honestly, I didn't think Bridges would get a nomination this year. I thought another really old really excellent actor would get it over him (I'll give you a hint: his name ends in "obert Duvall"). I'm not saying the nomination isn't deserved (it is), I was merely surprised. But he just got the win last year, and winning an Oscar two years in a row for acting is unheard of (Spencer Tracy and Tom Hanks are the only ones to have done it).
30:1
- Jesse Eisenberg for The Social Network- Okay, here's the thing, newbie: you ain't gonna win it for several reasons. 1. You're too young. The academy prefers the seasoned actor. 2. You have not outgrown Adventureland or Zombieland and must get more under your belt before you play with the big boys and 3. First noms rarely win. This is not to say Eisenberg wasn't good, he was very good. It's just not his year.
45:1
- Colin Firth for The King's Speech- Let's look at this logically: a surprising turn last year landed him in the Best actor category (where he was unfairly shafted), he's going up against two first timers and two recent winners, and he and Bridges were last years favorite as well (Bridges won). This is Firth's to lose, man. I don't see how he couldn't win.
- 3:1
- James Franco for 127 Hours- Same logic as Eisenberg. Too young, too new. But this is just the first of what I predict to be many nominations. James Franco is an excellent actor and I assure you, he will get another chance.
- 30:1
Will win: Colin Firth (The King's Speech)
Should Win: Colin Firth
Snubbed: Robert Duvall (Get Low), Ryan Gosling (Blue Valentine), Leonardo DiCaprio (Inception, Shutter Island),
4. Supporting Actor
- This category tends to carry less glory than it's leading counterpart. I understand that, but it's unfair. Often the supporting actors outshine the leads or compliment them in such a way that they are not credited. We have an interesting mish-mosh this year and this is actually the category I'm least sure about.
- Christian Bale for The Fighter- Christian Bale is an extraordinary actor. He will go to amazing lengths for his art (eg. The Machinist, American Psycho) and this is no different. He slims waaaay down for the role and tears into like a piece of meaty meat in a totally non-gay way. I think it's time Bale gets recognized for his bravura acting skills.
- 2:1
- John Hawkes for Winter's Bone- Winter's Bone is the only major movie to be nominated that I don't fully feel comfortable talking about. I haven't seen it and I don't even know what it's about. Generally, if everybody is talking about it, it's a good sign. But I've only heard whispers. So I can't tell ya.
- Your guess is as good as mine.
- Jeremy Renner for The Town- Renner was nominated last year in the Best leading actor category for his role in The Hurt Locker. Obv, he didn't win. According to my rule of the newcomers, it was unlikely. But, according to my rule of second chances, he's got a shot at the win this time around. Renner is one of those actors that has been around for a really long time and only recently is getting attention. But he deserves it.
8:1
- Mark Ruffalo for The Kids Are All Right- Nope. Sorry, Ruffalo. It's a comedy. The last supporting actor to win the award in comedy was (oddly enough) Geoffrey Rush almost a decade ago.
35:1
- Geoffrey Rush for The King's Speech- This is tricky. He's the senior of the group and is the only one to have an award under his belt. The academy tends to go about fifty-fifty in this category. It's either the old man or the new blood.
- 2:1
Will win: Christian Bale (The Fighter) or Geoffrey Rush (The King's Speech) [Leaning towards Bale]
Should Win: Christian Bale
Snubbed: Bill Murray (Get Low), Andrew Garfield (The Social Network)
5. Leading Actress
I can't think of anything new to say. This is a pretty cut-and-dry winner here. Same politics as the rest of the acting nominations.
- Annette Bening for The Kids Are All Right- I've said it before and I'll say it again: Comedies don't perform well at the oscars. Nor do the actors in them. Bening, I'm sorry, you're great but this ain't your year.
20:1
- Nicole Kidman for Rabbit Hole- I heard great things about this movie. But that's just the thing: I heard. Everyone heard things about this neat little indie flick, but no one saw it. She'll have more chances. But this one just isn't for her.
25:1
- Jennifer Lawrence for Winter's Bone- Once again, I don't feel comfortable talking about this one. But of course, the newcomer rule states it's not in the cards for her. It seems highly unlikely.
25:1
- Natalie Portman for Black Swan- What does the academy like? Do they like movies ten years in the making? An actress covering new and fascinating ground? Everybody does their own stunts? Yes, Yes and Yes. This is oscar bait if I've ever seen it. Portman will win this one, of that I'm pretty sure. The newcomer rule can be broken for cases such as this. And so it was written... And so it shall be.
- 2:1
- Michelle Wiliams for Blue Valentine- Unless Williams wins.
- 3:1
Will win: Natalie Portman (Black Swan)
Should Win: Natalie Portman
Snubbed: Julianne Moore (The Kids Are Alright)
6. Supporting Actress
This is the veritable ghetto of acting nominations. Often fraught with doubles (two nominations from the same movies) because of last moment panic because the academy didn't watch for supporting actresses throughout the year. It's a shame. This year is no different.
- Amy Adams for The Fighter- Here's the thing: the academy loves Amy Adams. She was nominated for Doubt a couple years back and lost. She may get her mojo for this one. But then again she's still young. She has plenty of time to shine like a STAAAAAA!
- 8:1
- Helena Bonham Carter for The King's Speech- Hmm. This is strange... I never expected to see Carter's name up here. And I'm guessing the same goes for most of the voters. We're not used to thinking of Carter as an oscar-worthy actress. This is her first nomination, so she's not going to get it. But if she turns out more work like this, who knows?
15:1
- Melissa Leo for The Fighter- Leo (a native of my hometown) was nominated for Frozen River a few years ago and lost. But she has proved to a be a critic darling and this may be her year. She has put out nothing but outstanding work.
- 3:1
- Hailee Steinfeld for True Grit- Lucky for Steinfeld, there's a very real possibility that the nominees for The Fighter will cancel each other out. If that happens, I could see her snagging this puppy up (IT'S NOT A PUPPY). I would love to see her win. He performance in True Grit was phenomenal and for someone so young, there's a possibility she doesn't come back to acting. Or worse, she falls into the trap of making shitty movies for the rest of her life.
- 6:1
- Jacki Weaver for Animal Kingdom- Never heard of the actress, never heard of the movie. No-go for the Oscars.
- 50:1
Will Win: Melissa Leo (The Fighter)
Should Win: Hailee Steinfeld (True Grit)
Snubbed: Mila Kunis (Black Swan)
Jesus, that was exhausting. This is all subject to change. ALL OF IT.
WEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee.....
....
....
oh, boy.....
Here are the rest of the nominations if you're interested:
Best Animated Feature Film of the Year
- How to Train Your Dragon
- The Illusionist
- Toy Story 3 (Will Win)
Original Screenplay
- Another Year, Written by Mike Leigh
- The Fighter, Screenplay by Scott Silver, Paul Tamasy and Eric Johnson. Story by Keith Dorrington, Paul Tamasy and Eric Johnson
- Inception, Written by Christopher Nolan (Will Win)
- The Kids Are All Right, Written by Lisa Cholodenko and Stuart Blumberg
- The King's Speech, Screenplay by David Seidler
Adapted Screenplay
- 127 Hours, Screenplay by Danny Boyle & Simon Beaufoy
- The Social Network, Screenplay by Aaron Sorkin (Will Win)
- Toy Story 3, Screenplay by Michael Arndt. Story by John Lasseter, Andrew Stanton and Lee Unkrich
- True Grit, Written for the screen by Joel Coen and Ethan Coen
- Winter's Bone, Adapted for the screen by Debra Granik and Anne Rosellini
Best Foreign Language Film of the Year
- Biutiful (Mexico) (Will Win)
- Dogtooth (Greece)
- In a Better World (Denmark)
- Incendies (Canada)
- Outside the Law (Hors-la-loi, Algeria)
Original Score
- John Powell, How to Train Your Dragon
- Hans Zimmer, Inception
- Alexandre Desplat, The King's Speech
- A.R. Rahman, 127 Hours
- Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross, The Social Network
Original Song
- "Coming Home," Music and Lyrics by Tom Douglas, Troy Verges and Hillary Lindsey (Country Strong)
- "I See the Light," Music by Alan Menken; Lyrics by Glenn Slater (Tangled)
- "If I Rise," Music by A.R. Rahman; Lyrics by Dido and Rollo Armstrong (127 Hours)
- "We Belong Together," Music and Lyrics by Randy Newman (Toy Story 3) (Will Win)
Achievement in Art Direction
- Alice in Wonderland
- Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part I
- Inception (Will Win)
- The King's Speech
- True Grit
Achievement in Cinematography
- Black Swan, Matthew Libatique (Toss Up)
- Inception, Wally Pfister (Toss Up)
- The King's Speech, Danny Cohen (Toss Up)
- The Social Network, Jeff Cronenweth
- True Grit, Roger Deakins
Achievement in Costume Design
- Alice in Wonderland, Colleen Atwood
- I Am Love, Antonella Cannarozzi
- The King's Speech, Jenny Beavan (Will Win)
- The Tempest, Sandy Powell
- True Grit, Mary Zophres
Best Documentary Feature
- Exit Through the Gift Shop
- Gasland
- Inside Job
- Restrepo
- Waste Land
Best Documentary Short Subject
- Killing in the Name
- Poster Girl
- Strangers No More
- Sun Come Up
- The Warriors of Qiugang
Achievement in Film Editing
- Black Swan, Andrew Weisblum
- The Fighter, Pamela Martin
- The King's Speech, Tariq Anwar
- 127 Hours, Jon Harris
- The Social Network, Angus Wall and Kirk Baxter
Achievement in Makeup
- Barney's Version
- The Way Back
- The Wolfman (Will Probably Win)
Best Animated Short Film
- Day & Night
- The Gruffalo
- Let's Pollute
- The Lost Thing
- Madagascar, carnet de voyage (Madagascar, a Journey Diary)
Best Live Action Short Film
- The Confession
- The Crush
- God of Love
- Na Wewe
- Wish 143
Achievement in Sound Editing
- Inception
- Toy Story 3
- Tron: Legacy
- True Grit
- Unstoppable
Achievement in Sound Mixing
- Inception
- The King's Speech
- Salt
- The Social Network
- True Grit
Achievement in Visual Effects
- Alice in Wonderland
- Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part I
- Hereafter
- Inception (Will Win)
- Iron Man 2
A lot of these are difficult to determine. Besides, people only care about the big ones. Right?
I'll do some research and get back to you.
Linksys! (is the name of the router I'm on)
http://oscar.go.com/
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/83rd_Academy_Awards
